Dashboard

Peatland condition based on BRG classification system. Degraded peatlands denote areas where there is evidence of forest loss or canal construction. Burned areas are calculated based on fires in the period 2015 – 2019. 

Land use breakdown according to KLHK data on land cover. ‘Non-concession’ are areas that have not been officially designated for conservation but also are not being cultivated. 

Estimated cultivation profit is calculated based on the breakdown of estate and smallholder cultivation activities under each land use category. For agriculture there are not more detailed data on what is cultivated, so it is assumed land under the ‘Agriculture’ category is rice production. The economics of each category is then calculated by multiplying the number of hectares for each by the revenues and costs per hectare to estimate the profitability across the KHG or Regency. 

Carbon statistics are based on the condition of the input peatland areas and the current activities on the land, and only consider below ground (peat) carbon. Carbon stock measurements are based on data from the Government of Indonesia where available. Stock calculation was made using logarithmic function (Dairiah, 2014). Some KHG or Regency do not have carbon data and will return an error. 

Emissions are calculated using IPCC/KLHK emissions factors based on land use type and condition (National FREL, Republic of Indonesia, 2016). The 30-year carbon stock diagram assumes constant emissions over time, i.e. no restoration takes place. 

Both carbon stock and emission calculations are done on Tier 1 details. These are not definitive and should act as general guideline for carbon estimates. 

Investment need is broken down into restoration cost and new business model CAPEX. Restoration cost is calculated based on data from BRG and takes in to account current land use characteristics to estimate the amount of hydrological restoration needed as well as revegetation and training on peatland management, according to BRG’s 3R approach (rewetting, revegetation, revitalization). 

CAPEX is the initial investment needed to implement a new business model. CAPEX figures will vary depending on which desired new business models the user has selected on which areas. For example, if the user selects ‘From Pulp to Paludiculture’, the model will search how much land is currently under pulp production, then apply the cost of clearing and replanting that land with paludiculture species in order to calculate the CAPEX. 

OPEX figures are the yearly running costs of the new business model will also depend on which new model the user selects.

Revenue of new business models is estimated base on research and interviews from various project operators. The revenue of a carbon business model will depend on the user input on carbon price. These revenue figures are then combined with costs to obtain the profitability of new business models once they are fully established. Note that these figures do not constitute a detailed financial forecast and are indicative of the performance of each business model. 

CAPEX, OPEX, and Revenue assumptions are derived from the combination of desktop research, i.e. companies’ published financials and annual reports, carbon project documentations; published research papers; extrapolation of historical data; and interviews with relevant actors. These are estimates in by no means an accurate predictor of future performance. Any discrepancies with actual data past and/or future may occur due to differences in data source, market conditions, and unmodelled variables. 

Description of ‘New business models:

Fire-free: The fire-free business model option assumes that current cultivation continues but with new fire-management practices by concession companies and smallholders. Under the new model, producers in one KHG would join resources together to create buffer zones with a central monitoring authority to reduce fire risk. This business model can increase profitability by reducing losses from fire damage. 

Carbon: A carbon-based business model assumes the land manager restores the land and monetizes the carbon benefits from generated from doing so. Restoring the land would create immediate emissions reductions from reducing peat decomposition and eventually increasing carbon sequestration. The land manager can then certify these results and generate carbon credits that can then be sold to the market. 

Paludiculture: Paludiculture means the cultivation of peat-friendly species that can thrive on un-drained peatland areas. There are several paludiculture species that can be cultivated for production of food, fibre or fuel and therefore create value out of undrained peatlands. For this analysis, it is assumed that the two paludiculture crops sago and purun are used. Note that it may take several years for the crops to mature and start producing a profit. 

Carbon + Paludiculture: Because paludiculture production involves the re-wetting of drained peatlands it can produce significant carbon benefits from reducing peat degradation. Both carbon and paludiculture business models can, theoretically, therefore be combined by monetizing the emissions reductions while also planting new paludiculture species for cultivation. 

This card gives an estimation of the demographics of the input area, including the age, education and profession. Data are based on 2019 survey results from [Disdukcapil] taken at the sub-district level and then calculated based on the overlap of the sub-district and the input area. The calculation assumes even population distribution within the sub-district, so may vary from actual demographics in the selected area.